Exploring the Future

BMGT-491 (3)

Course Syllabus

What determines the future of your business? What forces control how others will respond to your management techniques? Is it all down to you? If not, what are the outside forces affecting the success or failure of your business AND your management style and methods? Is there a way to better understand those forces?

In this course we will look at some of the following techniques for comprehending the future:

Environmental Scanning

Participatory Methods

Structural Analysis

Delphi

Systems and Modeling

Decision Modeling

Scenario Construction

Trend Impact Analysis

Cross-Impact Analysis

Technological Sequence Analysis

Relevance Trees & Morphological Analysis

Statistical Modeling

Simulation-Gaming

Futures Wheel

Normative Forecasting

Genius Forecasting, Vision & Intuition

Crystal Ball Gazing (just kidding)

This practical, discovery class depends upon active, consistent student involvement. Check our WebTycho classroom and your email at least once every two days and respond to queries within one day if possible, two at the maximum (even if just to say when you will be able to give a more complete answer to the request). I will try to allow you time to explore the subject both individually and in small groups while giving you feedback on completed assignments.

There will be both individual and small group work. In addition to studying the assigned text, you must satisfactorily complete the following:

a. Weekly or biweekly assignments to be shared and critiqued with other students.

1) Use WebTycho conference and study group areas. We will use email as a back-up system.

2) Find and share with the class at least one different article or web site a week that relates to the current, just past, or just upcoming week's topic.

3) Complete individual assignments as shown in the Schedule and Assignments Sheet.

4) Review all conferences with new material and comment on the work and ideas of others as appropriate.

5) Complete and turn-in Module exercises.

b. A Journal on your reactions to and progress through this course submitted once monthly.

c. Participate in group discussions and lead class discussions on designated topics.

d. Course Project: A three part project report: This will be your opportunity to apply the techniques of future analysis and look toward a likely future.

• Part I, The Future of <your topic> (with snapshots at 5, 15 and 30 years hence);
• Part II, Forecasting Methodology (what techniques you applied, how they were applied, and why they were more appropriate than others - you will need to apply at least three of the methodologies we study to your subject); and,
• Part III, Annotated Bibliography of sources relevant to your topic.

e. An open-book, take-home mid-term exam accessed on-line at 0000 hours UCT/GMT, 11 May 2002 (return your response within 48 hours to the WT assignment area).

f. An open-book, take-home final exam accessed on-line at 0000 hours UCT/GMT, 13 July 2002 (return your response within 48 hours to the WT assignment area).

Class Participation: (25% of course grade)

• individual work including module exercises,
• weekly web site or article sharing with the class,
• a journal in which you reflect on your process of learning and sharing during the course,
• small group work, and
• review all conferences with new material and comment on the work and ideas of others as appropriate.

I will look at these three things that I ask you to do on a continual basis.

You will be graded on your consistent, steady progress through this course.

Use software (such as MS Office 97/98, MS Office 2000 or programs that can save files in those formats such as Star Office) that can integrate text with simple graphics and save them in MS Office, .gif, or .jpg formats.

Access to a software compression program such as WinZip is also needed. (It must be able to archive files with a .zip extension.)

Exceptions to this requirement are possible if alternative arrangements can be made for reliably sharing files which include embedded graphics.

Course Project: (25%)

A three part project report: This will be your opportunity to apply the techniques of future analysis and look toward a likely future.

• Part I, The Future of <your topic> (with snapshots at 5, 15 and 30 years hence);
• Part II, Forecasting Methodology (what techniques you applied, how they were applied, and why they were more appropriate than others); and,
• Part III, Annotated Bibliography of sources relevant to your topic.

Propose your topic and gain approval of it before launching off on your own. Perhaps you want to look at the effect of fresh water shortages on the business environment, of population on global business opportunities, or modern telecommunications on resource use. There are many possible subjects and I want you to select one that interests you early in the course.

We work this from back to front. That is, you do most of the work on Part III first - compiling a list a works related to your subject and evaluating their usefulness to you and those interested in your subject.

Next you focus on the methodologies that would have helped you understand the past and will help you understand the future of your subject area. You will need to apply at least three methodologies to your subject.

Finally, you get to present your view of the future. This may be the fun part, but your vision of the situation in each of the three time slices has to be linked by the logic of the methods used to discern them.

This is not a correspondence course. Your presence in our virtual classroom is a vital part of the learning experience for everyone in this course. Consequently lack of consistent participation 2-3 times weekly in spite of long hours at work, computer problems, deployments, vacations, business trips, other courses, etc. may earn you a grade of F(n) as such action overrides the grading percentages shown above.