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Exploring the FutureBMGT-491 (3) |
University of Maryland University College Electronic Distance Education Heidelberg, Germany |
| DE Term 4, 2001-2002; Dates: 1 April - 19 July 2002 | ||
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Exploring the FutureBMGT-491 (3) |
University of Maryland University College Electronic Distance Education Heidelberg, Germany |
| DE Term 4, 2001-2002; Dates: 1 April - 19 July 2002 | ||
Preview Syllabus |
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| Course
Locator Course Index Course Specific Notes [If you have specific questions about this course, please email me.] |
Stephen Covey has reminded us to
(Formerly BEHS 480 and TMGT 480. Fulfills the international perspective requirement.)
An examination of how to analyze and develop alternate ways of seeing the future. The interactions of population, technology, and political and economic systems, values, and leadership are investigated. Techniques futurists use--including scenario construction, trend analysis, the futures wheel, and environmental scanning--are explained. Techniques are applied in societal, professional, and personal settings.
Students may receive credit for only one of the following courses: BEHS 480, BMGT 491, MGMT 391, MGMT 398H, TMGT 401, or TMGT 480.
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What determines the future of your business? What forces control how others will respond to your management techniques? Is it all down to you? If not, what are the outside forces affecting the success or failure of your business AND your management style and methods? Is there a way to better understand those forces? In this course we will look at some of the following techniques for comprehending the future: |
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Environmental Scanning Participatory Methods Structural Analysis Delphi Systems and Modeling Decision Modeling Scenario Construction Trend Impact Analysis Cross-Impact Analysis |
Technological Sequence Analysis Relevance Trees & Morphological Analysis Statistical Modeling Simulation-Gaming Futures Wheel Normative Forecasting Genius Forecasting, Vision & Intuition Crystal Ball Gazing (just kidding) |
| Some of these methods are covered in your course guide. Others I cover in handouts which you will supplement with research on the Internet sharing your findings with the class. Several, as you can see, require courses of their own; those we will review to gain a better appreciation of their power and uses. | |
One of the lessons all leaders must quickly learn is, "Don't reinvent the wheel." So we will look around us and try to learn from what others have done. Which thought brings me to our second major focus for this course. It goes under the acronym PEST or STEP. (I prefer PEST - heh, heh). You know PEST, don't you?
PEST represents the major trends in our everyday environment that both hold us back and set us free. That's it - political, economic, social and technological forces that are ever-present in our lives. They control and are controlled by our actions. And while other business and management courses have examined these trends in passing, we shall concentrate here on understanding such trends in much greater detail.
In the end you will put these major trends together with three or more of the techniques we have learned and look into the future. You will select one issue or area of interest that will carry you through the term (it could be population, food, ecology, biotechnology, pollution, energy; conflict, cooperation; systems of governance, economy, society, living, world trade, etc.). You will complete a three part term project which will include an annotated bibliography of your topic, a discussion of the methods you used to analyze the future, and your vision of future developments related to your topic for 2007, 2017, and 2032.
This is a course for those who want to explore the vision of current futurists as well as test and develop their own vision of the future in the wider context of global forces. It is a course for the stewards of our society who want to reset their compass as well as for those who want to see the possibilities their future holds. It is a course for 'Trekkies' and Dr. Doolittles as well as CEOs and first line supervisors. Put simply, this is a course for those who want to take control of their future and focus on the important, not urgent tasks in their lives.
Global Issues 00/01, Annual Editions. Connecticut: Dushkin/McGraw-Hill Publishing Group, 2000. (0-07-236555-2) <GI> (or a more current version TBD)
Paul Hawken, Amory Lovins, and L. Hunter Lovins, Natural Capitalism: Creating the Next Industrial Revolution. Little, Brown & Company, 2000. (0-316-35300-0) <NC>
International University Consortium (IUC). Exploring the Future Course Guide. MD: UMUC, 1991. <CG>
| We use WebTycho as our virtual classroom. Discussions take place there and documents are posted for exchange there as well. We will use email as our back-up mode of contact send me an email with your current or changed email address. Please place the course designator - bmgt491 - as the first item in the subject line of each email message. | |
| Our course guide will lead us through an exploration of images of the future and some of the techniques and tools for evaluating and forecasting. It covers the PEST factors we need to consider and gives us some help on pulling the many, varied threads together in the end. Along the way we will read two other assigned books which we will supplement with information from the Internet and handouts I provide. We will use WebTycho to share our insights with each other in both whole class and small group discussion areas. | |
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Class Participation: (25% of course grade)
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I will look at these three things that I ask you to do on a continual basis. You will be graded on your consistent, steady progress through this course. Use software (such as MS Office 97/98, MS Office 2000 or programs that can save files in those formats such as Star Office) that can integrate text with simple graphics and save them in MS Office, .gif, or .jpg formats. Access to a software compression program such as WinZip is also needed. (It must be able to archive files with a .zip extension.) Exceptions to this requirement are possible if alternative arrangements can be made for reliably sharing files which include embedded graphics. |
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Course Project: (25%) A three part project report: This will be your opportunity to apply the techniques of future analysis and look toward a likely future.
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Propose your topic and gain approval of it before launching off on your own. Perhaps you want to look at the effect of fresh water shortages on the business environment, of population on global business opportunities, or modern telecommunications on resource use. There are many possible subjects and I want you to select one that interests you early in the course. We work this from back to front. That is, you do most of the work on Part III first - compiling a list a works related to your subject and evaluating their usefulness to you and those interested in your subject. Next you focus on the methodologies that would have helped you understand the past and will help you understand the future of your subject area. You will need to apply at least three methodologies to your subject. Finally, you get to present your view of the future. This may be the fun part, but your vision of the situation in each of the three time slices has to be linked by the logic of the methods used to discern them. |
| Midterm: open-book, take-home (20%). | You will have 48 hours for each of these tests. |
| Final exam: open-book, take-home (30%) . | |
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This is not a correspondence course. Your presence in our virtual classroom is a vital part of the learning experience for everyone in this course. Consequently lack of consistent participation 2-3 times weekly in spite of long hours at work, computer problems, deployments, vacations, business trips, other courses, etc. may earn you a grade of F(n) as such action overrides the grading percentages shown above. |
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I will
try to help every student earn an "A" by demonstrating a mastery of
course concepts. I do understand that students have many other responsibilities,
but it is your responsibility to your own learning and to assisting the learning
of others in this class that I will be most concerned with. I will work with
every student within reason to help her or him complete this course successfully.
I grade each exam and assignment on a relative scale (A-F; 70-0 points typically).
Your final grade is a weighted average of your separate grades in this course
with some allowance made for technical problems imposed by the delivery method
(WebTycho with email backup). It will come as no surprise that for a variety
of reasons a number of students each term choose not to earn an "A".
Policies/Procedures:
Consistent, quality participation and effort are essential if both you and the class as a whole are the reach our goals. You must check your WebTycho virtual classroom and your email account every 48 hours and respond to queries within one day (even if just to say when you will be able to give a more complete answer to the request). Additionally, you need to keep me informed of your primary and alternate email addresses, and any changes that occur. I will try to allow you time to explore the subject both individually and in small groups while giving you feedback on completed assignments.
Students will take turns leading group discussions.
Finally, do not fall behind. Work ahead if possible. Do some work on this course every day or two. Set aside time to do this. If confused, in doubt, or in need of a clarification on any aspect of the course, contact me first.
| Phil Richardson; prichard@faculty.ed.umuc.edu | Revised 14 February 2002 |