Course Project

Your syllabus specified the following 3-part assignment as your opportunity to apply the techniques of future analysis and look forward to a likely result within the issue or area you select:

Part I, The Future of your topic (with snapshots at 5, 15 and 30 years hence); Part II, Forecasting Methodology (what techniques you applied, how they were applied, and why they were more appropriate than others); and, Part III, Annotated bibliography of sources relevant to your topic.

Let's start with the topic first.

Pick an issue of keen interest to you. You will spend a lot of time on this project and your time is too valuable to waste on a minor issue - so choose a big one.

Save the planet from pollution; the future of hydrocarbon fuel sources; alternative energy; life after genetically modified organisms; animal or human cloning; Third-World debt; future World Wars; urban living; population growth vs. limited resources; etc.

The issue you select is important, for you will learn new ways of exploring the possible futures of that issue. Many sources exist on-line for improving your understanding of these issues and techniques for exploring their futures; however, there are other sources that you should not ignore. If you get a head start you can order books on interlibrary loan or have friends help you search for material in the U.S.

You are right to be concerned about selecting specialty subjects. For example, if you need access to special trade publications of the Chemical Society or some specialized institute, the UMUC library system and databases may not even index those items, let alone have an on-line full text article. But that still leaves a wealth of subjects from which to choose which do have many articles and commentaries available that will update and challenge your understanding.

Yet, you need to keep your topic reasonably narrow otherwise the workload will become too great. So a good guideline is to narrow your topic until the sources dry up, and then back up one or two levels so that you have sufficient resources, but also a manageable topic.

Next is timing. You will see from the Schedule and Assignment page that you will turn in each part separately for my comment and grade. This will allow you to consider my comments, due supplemental work as needed, and even change you mind or arguments prior to commiting to Part I.

As for the content of the report, we will build it from the back to front so that is how I will discuss it.

Part III:

First you need to create a bibliography for your topic. I know it will never be completed - it is a living document. You could never have enough time to finish it and fulfill you other responsibilities.

1. As you research your subject, keep notes on the articles, books, papers, essays, videos, web sites, etc. that you review. You will need a clear citation of course. But for an annotated bibliography, you need to comment on the key contribution to your learning offered by each source as well as its value relative to other sources you have found.

2. You should not stop with 25 sources, or 50 sources or 500 sources. The purpose of an annotated bibliography is to point other researchers to documents of value, to characterize that value ahead of time, and to demonstrate that you have reviewed the relevant, significant material available on the issue.

3. I do not require that your annotated bibliography be comprehensive or exhaustive. You need to satisfy yourself that your research has been sufficient.

4. You will need to have a section of this part on the major issue under study. You will also need a separate section on the techniques you chose to use for Part II of this report, as the description in your Course Guide of futurist techniques is not sufficient for detailed application of the methods.

 

Part II:

Second, you need to present the techniques (at least three) you have selected to analyze your topic and extend your vision into the future.

1. Your first job here is to explain the particular strengths of the techniques selected as they pertain to understanding how your topic will develop in the future. This will involve a discussion of the strengths and weaknesses of the methods selected and a comparison to other methods that were not used.

Certain techniques, such a statistical analysis, are beyond the scope of this course. If you have skills in such an area and wish to use them on this project, fine; that is not required, however.

2. You are required to apply (hence include in Part II) at least two of the following techniques: scenario construction, trend impact analysis, futures wheel, cross-impact analysis, or environmental scanning.

 

Part I:

Thirdly, you use the techniques presented in Part II to analyze your topic and extend your vision into the future.

1. Your first job here is to explain the current situation and any relevant history. This is to be a summary, not a complete exposé. You need to focus on facts and assumptions that you use in examining the future of your chosen issue/topic. You may direct the reader to items detailed in Part III which contain a more in-depth picture of the issue.

2. Nonetheless, before you lay out the future, please ensure the reader's understanding has a chance to catch up with your understanding of the key, significant variables affecting future developments in your topic area.

3. Next take one technique at a time and look at the three time slices - 5, 15 and 30 years into the future (2007, 2017 and 2032). While your coverage may of necessity be general, you should make specific judgments or forecasts for each time period. The clearer and more detailed your vision of the future, the more likely it is that your reader will follow along and understand your reasoning. (For an excellent example of this technique, see The World in 2020 by Hamish McRae or The Empty Raincoat by Charles Handy.)

Use graphics, charts, slides, etc. to support your analysis. Integrate your narrative and your supporting charts and graphs.

You may alternatively choose to look at a time slice with all your chosen techniques; thus you would explore 2007 completely using all three techniques before moving on to 2017 (exploring with all techniques) and finally to 2032. Each approach (by time slice or by technique) has drawback, so I leave it up to you.

4. Before the end of Part I, leave the reader in no doubt which vision of the future for your topic in each time slice is most likely in your view.

5. You cannot neglect the interaction of your chosen topic and all the others issues we will be studying. So do not forget to integrate a discussion of the impact of future developments in your chosen area upon other areas as well as the impact of likely developments in other areas upon your own.

For example, if your topic is alternative energy sources, there is a possible interaction with population, food production, movement patterns of people, community life styles, fresh water usage and control, economic activity, advances in material science, etc.

Your should use of the techniques for examining the future to address these interactions.

 

Use diagrams, graphs, graphics, drawings, tables, etc. and to supplement your commentary. Relate the narrative to the graphics, tables, etc. and vice versa.

I hope this helps explain what I expect from this project. I want it to be personally both useful and fun - so please keep that in mind.

Finally, I do not count pages. I want you to say something meaningful and significant in your eyes and mine. There is a theory that a seven page paper is the most difficult to produce and say something significant. Do not turn in a first draft of your paper to me. It does justice to neither of us.

Enjoy!