Exploring the Future

BMGT-491 (3)

See Week 1 Group Assignments and Week 1 Individual Assignments

Texts: Review Table of Contents, Introduction and Preface of your books:

Exploring the Future Course Guide <CG> ,
Global Issues 00/01 <GI>, and
Natural Capitalism <NC>)

Turn In & Participate:

Practice basic protocols. Complete Week 1 Assignments. Survey Library resources.
Confirm books have arrived.
Explore Internet Resources.
Explore the UMUC Databases/sources and other web sites for Futurist and Future Forecasting sources (both techniques and actual forecasts).
Get acquainted with fellow learners; post a course specific bio-sketch to share with others
Complete the WebTycho tutorial and a review of my general and specific course guidance.

Week 2 (7 - 13 Apr. '02) The World of the Futurist

** Course Project Topic Due 13 April 2002 **

So you want to be a "Futurist"? What a great ambition! But do you have the breadth of background and vision that are needed? How can you be sure? How can you develop better the experiences and assets you already have? What do you have to do?

One thing you must do this week is get started on the "Dialogues at ROSC". Each of you will have a chance to assume the role of one of the ten characters in the dialogue. This week, read through the dialogue and try to understand what has happened to at least part of our country. Share your initial reactions in the Whole Class study group area. In a few weeks we shall review the study guide questions which are scattered throughout the dialogue.

Topics:

What is "Futures Studies"? Why do futurists pursue it?
In what ways is Futures Studies unique?
Why and how do values and objectives effect present and future societies?
Do we have to study systems? Why?
How do we comprehend and analyze system interaction?
When generalist meets specialist, can there be any agreement on the way ahead?

Text: Study:

CG: through Lesson 1, The World of the Futurist; Appendix B, Dialogues at ROSC
GI: Units 1 & 7 Overviews. Article Topic Areas: The Future (See the articles listed on GI pg 4-5.)
NC: Chapter 1

CG Lsn 1, Discussion Ques.: 1-3;
CG Lsn 1 Activity 1 (pg 3)

It is never too soon to start thinking about your Course Project subject. Post a tentative project in the WT Conference set up for this purpose.
Use the UMUC library on-line database.

Participate in Conferences.
One article/web site to share with the class
See also the environmental scanning handout

Group Work:

CG Lsn 1, Discussion Ques.: 4-6;

CG Lsn 1 Activity 2 (pg 3)

Week 3 (14 - 20 Apr. '02) Images of the Future

** Journal.1 due NLT 20 Apr. '02 **

By now everyone should have textbooks and be well into the course.

So how is your vision? "Better than 20/20 here and now", you say. Excellent! Absolutely 0/0 for next week, let alone next year, next decade, next century. "Normal, normal", say I.

How many vision statements have you seen? Is your vision for your organization clouded by your desire and abilities more than the strengths and weaknesses of, opportunities for, and threats to the organization itself? That would not be unusual.

For the ten days we look at images of the future. We are but weak mounds of clay - or the modern day equivalent - a collection of atoms (energy) as porous as anything, but densely enough packed together so that our senses can make out a shape and mass we call human (e = mc2, transporter beams, etc.). How do we get any images of the future, let alone the ones we hold? What is the basis for our "best guess" at what tomorrow will hold?

As you will see, one image is not enough. Futurists are explorers - and only many possible futures and many possible images will do. But Futurists are not all alike and differences are not always handled with grace. Indeed, you will find that some futurists believe that others, who also claim to be futurists, seem bent on the destruction of mankind. Images can be deeply troubling as well as wonderfully liberating. (I have a colleague who teaches and encourages "Liberating Leadership" which itself has multiple meanings).

A word of caution. We quickly get into that part of the course where deep-rooted philosophical and religious beliefs can be challenged in debate. We are not on a crusade. Nor do we mean to besmirch anyone's background, ancestors or upbringing. We are on a quest for greater knowledge and understanding - and as such I hope that all will allow us to freely question, challenge and seek reasoned explanations for each other's deeply held beliefs.

I am happy to kick it off.

[Just for the record, I am an overweight, white, male, practicing Roman Catholic (since birth I suspect), member of two other autocratic and bureaucratic structures - one academic and one military, still married (only once and for 33 years) to a wife who has always worked while rearing two fine sons who both have Masters degrees and work in "establishment" jobs. I used to vote Republican, but am more of a Reformist myself. I think the USA must be one of the grandest ideas of the human mind, but have lived outside the country for most of my adult life. I am a self-styled maverick. Everyone is prejudiced about something - I just hope I am not bigoted.]

Who says that men are not inferior to women? Who says that different species, races and cultures of the world have not developed, over millennia, special skills that set them apart from others? Why would we think that Arab horse and a Welsh pony would or should be equally skilled at identical tasks? (I have it on good authority that Phillip means "lover of horses", but it is actually my wife who carries on the tradition in our house.) Who would be brave enough to bet on the Welsh pony in a race on the flat?

Who would be foolhardy enough to claim that in a few decades mere humans can "redress" or "undo" or "revise" what nature has spent millions of years brewing? Have we not learned how fragile our environment is? Who would be foolhardy enough to try to change the course of "nature". I am reminded of a advertisement with the punch-line, "It's not nice to fool Mother Nature." But can we extend that to, "It is neither clever nor helpful to try to help Mother Nature along a path chosen by a small cluster of humans."

Who says our view of our past is correct (not to mention our future)? We know that each of us "sees" color differently, for example. As we grow up, we learn to associate what we see with names of colors without thinking that every other person will see a slightly different waveform or frequency or intensity of a color we call, for example, green. Just as each of us has a different image in mind when someone says "cat" or "dog", so it is with "green", "red", "hot", "pain", "freedom", "well-managed", "high quality", "success", etc. These are things we can sense. Just think about things we have never experienced - "God" or "Christ" is for many just one example. "Utopia" is another. Perhaps a "Cornucopia" might qualify as well.

(In years of studying Asian and European peoples and cultures, I have learned to appreciate that Buddhists, animists, Hindus, Muslims, Confucians, and billions of people holding different ideas from me cannot all be wrong. I guess much the same can be said for those of us from California, New York, Florida, Texas, etc.)

What is moral? With culturally defined values in an increasingly interconnected world, moral actions in one part of the globe are subject to prosecution (the same person, the same event) and persecution in a different part of the world. Bribery to win business contracts is the example I have in mind and the way it is treated differently in Germany and the USA. (A bribe is, I believe, still a tax deductible business expense in Germany. It is a crime in certain cases in the USA as I recall, and certainly not tax deductible.)

Is there an absolute standard for all human activity - or is everything relative? Or is it that only some things are relative? Which activities might be judged by a relative standard then? (Let me choose, heh, heh!) Is there crime inherent in an act? Or is it merely in being caught and convicted? Is this any different from the classic question in physics, "Does a tree falling in a forest make a sound if no one is present to hear it fall?"

As humans, we have limits. Part of growing up is recognizing those limits. Part of being a futurist is discarding that recognition and regaining the freedom we had as children to think the unthinkable but combining that freedom selectively with knowledge we have gained from life experiences since then. We must discuss freely and fairly ideas which challenge our very sense of being - but we must do it with respect for each other's sense of self-worth and with loving kindness.

Topics:

What is an "image of the future"?
What is the role of values in constructing images of the future?
What are cornucopian images of the future?
What is the role of technology in those cornucopian images?
What values underlie cornucopian images of the future?
What are utopian images of the future? Why all the optimism? And why the pessimism in dystopian views of the future?
Are you an ecotopian? How would you know?
Explore the values, attitudes and behaviors that portend personal and social transformation
Will "eco-warriors" and environmental activists, or ecologists and environmentalists of the more restrained variety, have any impact on the course of human history - and human destiny? Why?
Contrast transformational images of the future with cornucopian images.
Critically analyze utopian, dystopian, muddle-through, and transformational images of the future.

Text: Study:

CG: Lessons 2 & 3. Images of the Future I & II.
GI: Units 5 & 6 Overviews. Article Topic Areas: Communications; Cultural Customs & Values; Development Economic & Social; The Future; International Economics: Trade, Aid & Dependencies; Political & Legal Global Issues.
NC: Chapters 2-3

CG Lsn 2, Discussion Ques.: 6;
CG Lsn 3, Discussion Ques.: 1;
CG Lsn 2 Activities 1, 3 (pg 26);
Complete and submit Part 1 of your Journal.

One article/web site to share with the class

Group Work:

CG Lsn 2, Discussion Ques.: 1-5;
CG Lsn 3, Discussion Ques.: 2-7;
CG Lsn 3 Activity 1 (pg 49).

Week 4 (21 - 27 Apr. '02) The Futurist's Toolbox

So you still want to be a "Futurist"? Well, you are going to need a few tools. This week we focus on the tools. You have several presented in the text. All have strengths and weaknesses, often related to the assumptions that underlie them.

People who monitor trends have a skill for integrating the next big idea into what has come before. But coming up with that next big idea - well that is a skill all its own and often done by a specialist rather than a generalist. Futurists love to look backwards - where we have come from - to help determine where we are going. Most of us can understand how that helps for knowing about tomorrow or the day after - but not so helpful in setting out actions for next year, or next decade.

Knowledgeable specialists and modern telecommunications offer us a wealth of insight when combined together using something like the Delphi technique.

Many of us know how to build -and rebuild - models, both physical and mental. Combine models with a computer and other people, and we can form simulations with endless possibilities, albeit most of them falling short of the ability to predict our future with any useful detail.

Scenario building and analysis offer us added tools within a defined structure. These are very useful and you are given one eight-step process that will give you a "jump-start" with this tool.

Cross-impact analysis can be implemented on a spreadsheet. Take care to look beneath the CG discussion, for Figure 4.1 on pg 91 leaves you to fill in the blanks. [Each letter a.-d. in the otherwise empty cells of the matrix is waiting for us to (1) specify the actual interaction of selected dimensions and identified characteristics upon each other (2) document the "why" and "how" of the interaction, and (3) somehow weight or value the impact. As useful as this technique is, you will need to practice it to avoid over simplifying the process.]

The "Futures Wheel" is presented fairly well on pg. 92 of your text; however, the final link in the upper right corner is better with 4 lines, indicating the 4th level of waterfall or trickle down effects of privatization. The number of lines connecting effects is of course critical in that it reflects your understanding of the flow of effects - it also represents an unquantified passage of time.

Finally, in the techniques presented in the CG, we have environmental scanning. This is exactly the same technique described in Strategic Management classes.

There are other techniques and I will pass out handouts on them to you. You should also investigate those of interest to you on the Internet.

Topics:

List explicitly the assumptions we must make when studying the future.
Trend spotters are not all wrong! Find them and extrapolate - carefully, on trends, that is.
What are future shaping variables? What are some examples? Why do they qualify?
How useful are specialists? Why?
Explore the Delphi technique
Explore models, games, and simulations as tools for exploring the future
Explore the futurists use of scenario analysis in detail
List and describe other tools used by futurists, including futures wheels, brainstorming, and environmental scanning.

Texts: Study:

CG: Lesson 4. The Futurist's Toolbox.
GI: Article Topic Areas: Economics; The Future.
NC: Chapters 4-6
Handouts (Adobe Acrobat .pdf files)

CG Lsn 4, Discussion Ques.: 2, 5;
CG Lsn 4 Activity 1 (pg 73);

Participate in Conferences.

One article/web site to share with the class

CG Lsn 4, Discussion Ques.: 1, 3, 4, 6, 7;

CG Lsn 4 Activity 2 (pg 73).

Week 5 (28 Apr - 4 May '02) Human Population & Food Production

Pick a number - any number - yes, that's the one: 6,000,000,000. More accurately represented as six billion, the population of the world is just an estimate and a disputed one at that. But no one disputes the fact that parts of the world lack sufficient food or means to produce sustainable levels of food while other parts of the world have crop surpluses that build up and rot for fear of destroying commodity markets.

We have seen "Green Revolutions" in India and genetically modified crops in the USA and sometimes violent reactions to agribusiness efforts to "improve" productive capacity of farmland. We have reactions to the overuse of pesticides, herbicides, artificial fertilizers plus a return to more "organic" methods. We have disputes about efficacy, quality of produce, effects upon the ecosystem, and even direct effects upon humans living in agricultural areas or consuming "artificially" modified organisms. I wonder what Luther Burbank or George Washington Carver would have to say about today's discussion of genetically modified organisms.

But I digress. So, when will we have too many people on earth? And, how many will that be? How will you handle it? How will others handle it? Since more people typically need more resources, will the cornucopians ride to the rescue? Or will it be the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse?

Are you comfortable with wars over water rights, access to arable land for food production, the imposition of Oriental standards of personal space and privacy on Western cultures, spreading the wealth so that others might live - wars between the "haves" and "have nots"? Indeed, the wars you will likely see are not been rich and poor, but between the poor and poorer or between the rich and richer. Are you happy that to improve the lives of people outside your community, those inside your community must "lower" their standard of living and expectations for the future - deny themselves their dreams. We need to think about what this means for American business and culture.

We start a discussion of the study guide questions for the "Dialogues at ROSC" with the questions on page B-12 and B-13.

Topics:

Linear versus exponential growth
What is "carrying capacity" in the context of food and population discussions?
What value judgments underlie the concept of carrying capacity?
Why is it so hard to slow down population growth? Include a discussion of religious, economic, anthropological and sociological factors.
What is the role of food supply in population growth?
Why is the link between human population levels and resource use a sensitive topic for Americans?

Texts: Study:

CG: Lesson 5. The Human Population of the Planet.
GI: Unit 2 Overview. Article Topic Areas: Agriculture, Food & Hunger; Population & Demographics.
NC: Chapters 10-11

CG Lsn 5, Discussion Ques.: 1, 2;
CG Lsn 5 Activity 3 (pg 105);

Participate in Conferences.

One article/web site to share with the class

CG Lsn 5, Discussion Ques.: 3-8;

CG Lsn 5 Activities 1, 2 (pg 105).

Dialogues at ROSC: pp. B-12 - B-13

Week 6 (5 - 10 May '02) The Environment

** Course Project Part III due 10 May '02 **

"Apple pie and motherhood", we used to say. Don't get on the wrong side of such an issue. Today, the environment is such an issue. One would think that all right-minded people would want to save the environment. Perhaps they do - but the key issues are "how" and "how much".

Take a part - any part - of our environment that you would like most to keep. No, you cannot select the "whole thing". Certainly there is one part of the environment you want to save more than others - the air, fresh water, the oceans, the forests, coastal plains, polar regions. Take your pick. Now select your method (this is a little more technical, but we can still broadly achieve this). Good. Now get support from the rest of the world for your approach - that includes money to carry out your plan.

Oops - guess we forgot to prepare our case properly. Did we consider the side effects of trying to save our chosen part of the environment? Did we consider which potential supporters would loose out in the bargain? Did we consider that saving our part of the environment would be too expensive? Did we consider that 2/3 of the world's population might not care much for our priorities?

Remember a few weeks ago we were talking about interaction between systems. Well, our environment represents a complex interaction and layering of many, complex systems and subsystems. Nothing is simple in the environmental debate. And while we talk, debate, deliberate, study, disagree, argue, march, campaign, and demonstrate, we continue to harvest what we have not sewn, to pollute in ways that cannot be undone, to use up our heritage so that whatever we can salvage for our children, it will inevitably be less.

Are we owners of this planet or merely custodians? Is the survival of the human race a right or a privilege?

Is it proper for me to use resources in the production of goods and services for my time, my community, my pleasure, and my purposes - even if that means that those resources are lost forever? Is it right for me to use global resources to improve the lives of 5% of the world's population? 10%? 15%? Would 0.05% be enough? Would I need to show that 95% of the world's people would benefit? Interesting . . ..

We continue with the "Dialogues at ROSC" with discussion of the questions on page B-19 and B-20 in our WT ROSC Conference.

Topics:

Why carbon-based life forms are here on Earth
What environmental systems are being threatened by human activities and how? What others are at risk?
How has Western-style industrial development affected the earth's life-support system?
Why is energy important (explore in detail)?
Contrast perpetual, nonrenewable and renewable energy sources.
What is sustainability in the context of environmental studies?
If we gain sustainability, will we have the same economic and social institutions (explore in detail)?
What is our ethical responsibility in all this? Is preserving humanity too much or just enough? Must we be concerned for other species as well?

Texts: Study:

CG: Lesson 6. The Past, Present and Future of the Environment.
GI: Unit 3 Overview. Article Topic Areas: Environment, Ecology and Conservation; Natural Resources; Science, Technology, and Research and Development.
NC: Chapters 12

CG Lsn 6, Discussion Ques.: 1-7;
CG Lsn 6 Activity 1 (pg 131);

Turn-in Part 3 of Course Project.
Participate in Conferences.
One article/web site to share with the class

CG Lsn 6, Discussion Ques.: 8-12;

CG Lsn 6 Activities 3,4 (pg. 132)

Dialogues at ROSC: pp. B-19 - B-20

Week 7 (11 - 17 May '02) Midterm Exam "Week"

** Journal.2 due NLT 15 May '02 **

Review for the Midterm Exam.

Midterm will be posted on WebTycho in the study group area by 0000 GMT/UCT (London time), 11 May '02 and is to be returned to the Assignment area of WT by 2400 GMT, 12 May '02.
Complete and turn-in midterm by deadline.

Complete and submit Part 2 of your Journal.

None

"The best of all possible worlds." Is that what we have? Not just food for the body and shelter, but activity for the mind, a community to share our lives with, security and safety for those we care about.

In traveling around the world, we have had the chance to experience how others organize their societies. What we do not see is what does not exist - options not selected.

Today the nation-state is the predominant model used by societies to organize themselves. If we thought about it, we could think of other ways to organize communities (consider ROSC, for example). History tells us that other ways are possible. But times have changed. Would some other way be possible today? Would some other way be better for the future?

Even if the basic model does not change, what of the other coordinating structures we have set up over the decades and centuries to take care of key issues in our society - what of them? Key structures we will look at this week include education, medical and social welfare. Of course we must add to that, the family.

We continue with the "Dialogues at ROSC" and a discussion of the questions on page B-26 and B-27 in our WT ROSC Conference.

Topics:

Is the nation-state good for us in the future?
What is happening to the family?
How can we organize ourselves better for global coordination and cooperation?
How must what we do and how we do it change in the field of education if we are to cope with the needs of the future?
What impact might changes in fundamental institutions have on us?
How can we preclude or mitigate mistakes when making fundamental changes in society?
Is long life a good thing for society? What are the effects on human support systems?

Texts: Study:

CG: Lesson 7. Social and Institutional Resources for the Future I.

(Nation-state, family, education and Health care)
Appendix B, Rethinking International Governance

GI: Unit 4 Overview. Article Topic Areas: Agriculture, Food, Hunger; Communications; Cultural Customs and Values; Development: Economic & Social; Military Warfare and Terrorism; Political and Legal Global Issues; Underdeveloped Countries.

NC: Chapters 7-9

CG Lsn 7, Discussion Ques.: 1-3;
CG Lsn 7 Activity 1 (pg 167);

Participate in Conferences.
One article/web site to share with the class

CG Lsn 7, Discussion Ques.: 4-7;
CG Lsn 7 Activity 2 (pg 167).

Dialogues at ROSC: pp. B-26 - B-27

Week 9 (9 - 15 June '02) Future Social and Institutional Resources II

** Course Project Part II due 15 June '02 **

How and where will we live and work in the future? When one thinks about it, more often than not we think of tomorrow in today's terms. Our dream home is the home we have been building in our mind. It has familiar rooms, familiar features, familiar surroundings. It feels comfortable. Our future lives are familiar. We can see and hear, touch and feel what we will be doing if we have thought about our lives in the future at all.

Now someone is going to tell me that I have been planning for the wrong future! My dream home cannot be built - at least not where and as I had hoped. The land may not be there. The money will probably not be there. Or perhaps, it is simply that a shopping mall beat us to that perfect spot. (Have you heard of the Hollywood stars who have bought up and then bulldozed neighboring multi-million dollar properties just to get a little privacy?)

Work was never like this, you may say. Will that be your seventh or 17th job change do you think? If retirement "age" is raised to 72 (social security defined age, I mean), then we will have 50-60 years of active working lives. Time enough for 15 or more different jobs.

So how will you live? How will your life style change? Fuel will be very expensive, personal transport will have changed, mass transport will still be lacking, family and friends may be no closer - remember, you and I will be caught in the transition between now and then.

We continue with the "Dialogues at ROSC" and a discussion of the questions on page B-36 and B-37 in our WT ROSC Conference.

Topics:

What will cities in the future look like? How will that affect me?
What will homes in the future look like? How will home design change?
What will be the nature of work in tomorrow's world?
How will changes in the world around us and in our daily activities affect our future lifestyles?
Will we change the way we define crime? (One might say, "continue to change".) Why? How? And what about punishment for crimes?
Define a desirable role for technology in every aspect of your life. What limits on technology need to be recognized and imposed?

Texts: Review:

CG: Lesson 8. Social and Institutional Resources for the Future II.

(How and where we live and work)
Appendix B, Future Work and Futures of Work, Working and Workers

GI: Article Topic Areas: Communications; Cultural Customs and Values; Development: Economic & Social; Economics; Energy; International Economics; Political and Legal Global Issues; Underdeveloped Countries.

NC: Chapters 13-15

CG Lsn 8, Discussion Ques.: 1-6;
CG Lsn 8 Activities 1,3 (pg 201);

Turn-in Part 2 of Course Project.
Participate in Conferences.
One article/web site to share with the class

CG Lsn 8, Discussion Ques.: 7, 8;
CG Lsn 8 Activities 2,4 (pg 201).

Dialogues at ROSC: pp. B-36 - B-37

Week 10 (16 - 22 June '02) Technological Resources I

** Journal.3 due NLT 22 June 2002 **

What can I say? We are taking this course on the Internet!

In jumping into our virtual classroom, you have perhaps jumped over some key futurist issues concerning computers and communications. We will visit - or revisit - them in this lesson.

When we bring together computing, telecommunications, networking, information processing, multimedia, mass media, education, entertainment, narrowcasting and broadcasting, we create a monster - or a genie.

We have heard the arguments. Generations ago, boys played football in the park - now, they play it virtually and do not have to worry about being left out or injured. Long ago, it took months to get to distant places and then explore them. Now, it takes seconds - and we have a choice of open exploration or guided tours.

Do we ever need to "be there" again? When someone asks whether we have ever seen the Mona Lisa or Taj Mahal, will virtual tours count (especially guided ones)?

If we can learn from others, do we need "real life" experiences or are virtual ones enough? Will managers with 15 years of virtual leadership experience be better or worse than those with 15 years of "real world" leadership experience? Will we start requiring both?

We continue with the "Dialogues at ROSC" and a discussion of the questions on page B-46 and B-47 in our WT ROSC Conference.

Topics:

Distinguish between science and technology
Advanced technology - a moving target. Why?
What are the emerging areas of computer and communications technologies (use the Internet to confirm your ideas for the course guide is a decade old)?
What emerging technologies might affect our lives every day? Describe how.
In our "knowledge society" and the "information age", can we live without communications technologies? How and why will such technology be so central to our lives? How is this different from 10, 50, 150, 550 years ago?
Everyone has ideas about the direction computers and communications technology will take in the future? Who is possibly right or wrong? Why?

Texts: Study:

CG: Lesson 9. Technological Resources for the Future I.

(Microelectronic & Communications)
Appendix B, The Greening of High Tech

GI: Article Topic Areas: Communications; Cultural Customs and Values; Science, Technology and Research and Development.

CG Lsn 9, Discussion Ques.: 1-5;
CG Lsn 9 Activity 1 (pg 233);

Turn-in Part 3 of your Journal.
Participate in Conferences.
One article/web site to share with the class

CG Lsn 9, Discussion Ques.: 6-8;
CG Lsn 9 Activity 2 (pg 233);

Dialogues at ROSC: pp. B-46 - B-47

Week 11 (23 - 29 June '02) Technological Resources II

Complete course Critique on WebTycho

If the 20th century belonged to the physical sciences, the 21st century surely belongs to the the natural sciences, and biotechnology in particular.

Genetic engineering - perhaps a simpler way to achieve goals women and men have strieved to reach for millennia. Perhaps a paved superhighway to the end of life as we know it. But who said life forms had to be carbon-based?

In the past few centuries, Western societies have "learned" that good things produced for high prices in small quantities can often be made widely available, at very low cost if we but put our minds to it. So a few hundred or thousand cars have become hundreds of millions. A few telephones in civic buildings have multiplied to billions around the world. (Etc.)

So we now have the ability to clone mammals as well as bacteria, to change the color of flowers, the shape of fruit and vegetables, etc. With the proper support - we can do these things in large numbers. But the political and social implications are somehow different than those that arose when making more and better computer chips.

And what about the energy that we use to power our industrial societies - and our new information societies. We have used bio-mass for millennia as well. Most agree it is time for a change. But when and to what and why and how?

Bright minds have suggested that we could possibly solve some environmental problems with better lateral thinking - using simple solutions to problems from other fields and applying them with suitable modifications to tackle environmental problems. So, for example, we have found bacteria that can consume oil pollution.

And there is always the wizard who turns lead into gold. But today, it is much more likely that the wizard will come up with a modern material that will help us be safer, faster, smarter, warmer, cooler, etc. The cornucopians are smirking, for it is technology to the rescue - perhaps.

Topics:

Describe the underlying basis of genetic engineering in general terms.
What moral and ethical dilemmas are posed by biotechnology today? In the future?
What are alternative sources of electrical energy? Compare them with fossil fuels with respect to sustainability, environmental effects and future energy costs.
"Keep it simple, s_____" rings in our ears. Is there a way that simple technologies may be used to solve old problems instead of more complex approaches?
Materials of the future - compare them with materials of today and of the past for similar applications.

Texts: Study:

CG: Lesson 10. Technological Resources for the Future II.

(Biotechnology, Energy, Environmental Technologies, & Materials)

GI: Article Topic Areas: Agriculture, Food and Hunger; Cultural Customs and Values; Energy: Exploration, Production, Research and Politics; Environment, Ecology and Conservation; Natural Resources; Science, Technology and Research and Development.

CG Lsn 10, Discussion Ques.: 2-5;
CG Lsn 10 Activity 2 (pg 266)

Participate in Conferences.
One article/web site to share with the class

CG Lsn 10, Discussion Ques.: 1, 6;
CG Lsn 10 Activity 1 (pg 266).

It is fitting in this presidential election year that we are reminded of that famous political phrase, "It's the economy, stupid!" But now our economy is global, whether we like it or not.

But the pattern we have followed for the past 100, 200, 400 years need not be the one best for the future. Indeed, it may not be best for today.

So in this lesson we reexamine the economic possibilities for the future, particularly on a global scale.

Also, it is time to pull together the variety of threads we have covered in the course and weave a cloth, from which to cut a suit that will befit the future in which we will live.

We wrap up our discussion of the "Dialogues at ROSC" in our Whole Class study group area this week too. We know more about the issues that the people in ROSC had to consider. Perhaps are judgements might not be so harsh.

Topics:

Describe the industrial paradigm and its major social, political and environmental consequences.
Suggest possible features of the economic paradigm that might replace industrialism.
How might postindustrial societies differ from industrial societies? Indeed, how did and do pre-industrial societies differ from industrial societies?
Bring together the threads from our prior and current discussion on economic, social, political, environmental and technological issues.
Discuss an image of the future that operates at the level of atoms and molecules.

Texts: Study:

CG: Lesson 11. Anticipating the Global Economy of the Future

GI: Article Topic Areas: Development: Economic and Social; Economics; International Economics, Trade, Aid and Dependencies; Underdeveloped Countries.

NC: Chapters 13-14

CG Lsn 11, Discussion Ques.: 1-7, 9;
CG Lsn 11 Activity 3 (pg 299)

Participate in Conferences.
One article/web site to share with the class

Group Work:

CG Lsn 11, Discussion Ques.: 8;
CG Lsn 11 Activities 1, 2 (pg 299).

Dialogues at ROSC Wrap-up

Week 13 (7 - 12 July '02) Global Future

** Course Project Part I Due: 9 July 2002 **

"The Buck stops here." I hope this is the message you get from this lesson, for this week we get personal.

Stellar leaders are needed to take us out of the present (and past) into the future. You are a stellar leader "in waiting".

All we have discussed will wither without leaders who will take up the challenge to mold the future for the good of mankind and the ecosystem we inhabit.

But what type of leader do we need and for what challenges? Good question.

It is a leadership task - a managerial task as well. It is a task for business and nonprofit organizations. It is a task that cannot be accomplished without people to be leaders and followers in a gigantic team effort. Uncle Sam and Mother Earth need you!

Topics:

Why is leadership necessary in organizations.
Leadership based on traits - explore.
Relate the concept of leadership for the future to images of possible futures we have created. What if the nation-state withered? What type of leader would we need then?
How will informed leadership help us tackle global issues we have discussed? Will we need a different type of leader?
What role will you have as a leader in the future?
What is your preferred image of the future? What values underlie that image? How will individual and institutional attitudes and actions have to change to make your vision a reality? What can you do now or in the near future to help shape the future toward your preferred image.

Texts: Study:

CG: Lesson 12. Leadership for a Global Future
CG: Lesson 13. Bringing It All Together - Creating Your Personal Future
GI: Article Topic Areas: Communications; The Future; International Economics, Trade, Aid and Dependencies; Military: Warfare and Terrorism; Underdeveloped Countries.

CG Lsn 12, Discussion Ques.: 2, 3;
CG Lsn 12 Activities 1,3 (pg 331-2);
CG Lsn 13 Activity 1 (pg 353);

Turn-in Part 1 of Course Project.
Participate in Conferences.
One article/web site to share with the class

Group Work:

CG Lsn 12, Discussion Ques.: 1, 4-6;
CG Lsn 13, Discussion Ques.: 1-5;
CG Lsn 12 Activity 2 (pg 332);
CG Lsn 13 Activity 4 (pg 353).

Week 14 ( 13 - 19 July 2002) Final Exam Week.

** Journal.4 due NLT 15 July 2002 **

Course Review, Wrap-up & Final comments, Course Critique, etc.

Final Exam will be posted on WebTycho in the study group area by 0000 GMT/UCT, 13 July 2002 and is to be returned to the Assignment area of WT by 2400 GMT, 14 July 2002.
Complete and turn-in final by deadline.

Turn-in Part 4 of your Journal.

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