Techniques for Examining the Future MGMT-391	University of Maryland University College Electronic Distance Education Heidelberg, Germany
DE Term 5, 1999-2000; Dates: 12 Jun. - 6 Oct. 2000

(3 sem. hours via Electronic Communications)

Preview Syllabus

Instructor/Tutor/Lecturer

[If you have specific questions about this course (formerly called Challenge for the Future, MGMT-398H), please email me.]

Stephen Covey has reminded us of the requirement to

Begin with the End in Mind. So ...

Course Goal - To enable you to look at the future with new eyes and then, mindful of how the past formed the present, to act purposefully and systematically to create the future you desire for yourself and those you choose to share it with.

Course Description

An examination of the role of leadership in analyzing and planning for the future. The interactions of population, technology, political and economic systems, and values are investigated. Techniques futurists use -- including scenario construction, trend analysis, the futures wheel, and environmental scanning -- are explained. Techniques are applied in societal, professional, and personal settings. Students may receive credit for only one of the following courses: BEHS 480, MGMT 391, MGMT 398H, or TMGT 401.

Prerequisite: BMGT 110 or equivalent.

Satisfies the historical and international perspective portion of the bachelor degree General Education Requirements.

What determines the future of your business? What forces control how others will respond to your management techniques? Is it all down to you? If not, what are the outside forces affecting the success or failure of your business AND your management style and methods? Is there a way to better understand those forces?

In this course we will look at some of the following techniques for comprehending the future:

Some of these methods are covered in your course guide. Others you will research on the Internet and share your findings with the class. Several, as you can see, require courses of their own; those we will review to gain a better appreciation of their power and uses.

Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it.

One of the lessons all leaders must quickly learn is, "Don't reinvent the wheel." So we will look around us and try to learn from what others have done. Which thought brings me to our second major focus for this course. It goes under the acronym PEST or STEP. (I prefer PEST - heh, heh). You know PEST, don't you?

PEST represents the major trends in our everyday environment that both hold us back and set us free. That's it - political, economic, social and technological forces that are ever-present in our lives. They control and are controlled by our actions. And while other business and management courses have examined these trends in passing, we shall concentrate here on understanding such trends in much greater detail.

In the end you will put these major trends together with three or more of the techniques we have learned and look into the future. You will select one issue or area of interest that will carry you through the term (it could be population, food, ecology, biotechnology, pollution, energy; conflict, cooperation; systems of governance, economy, society, living, world trade, etc.). You will complete a three part term project which will include an annotated bibliography of your topic, a discussion of the methods you used to analyze the future, and your vision of future developments related to your topic for 2005, 2015, and 2030.

This is a course for those who want to explore the vision of current futurists as well as test and develop their own vision of the future in the wider context of global forces. It is a course for the stewards of our society who want to reset their compass as well as for those who want to see the possibilities their future holds. It is a course for 'Trekkies' and Dr. Doolittles as well as CEOs and first line supervisors. Put simply, this is a course for those who want to take control of their future and focus on the important, not urgent tasks in their lives.

Assignments/Evaluation/Grades:

Our course guide will lead us through an exploration of images of the future and some of the techniques and tools for evaluating and forecasting. It covers the PEST factors we need to consider and gives us some help on pulling the many, varied threads together in the end. Along the way we will read three other assigned books which we will supplement with information from the Internet. We will use WebTycho to share our insights with each other in both whole class and small group discussion areas.

You will be graded on individual and small group work (20% of course grade) and on a journal (10%), that I ask you to keep, reflecting on this journey of discovery. There will be an open-book, take-home mid-term (accessed on-line) before the term break which will consolidate the first part of the course (15%). Our course project (25%) will be completed in a series of phases. You will turn in a draft of each part for my comments (back to front so to speak - starting with the bibliography, then the techniques section and finally the application to your area of interest); you will then have the chance to reflect and change your submission if needed prior to the final due date. There will also be an open-book, take-home final exam (30%) accessed on-line; this will be an essay/short answer exam covering specific learning objectives for this course as set out in the course guide.

I will try to help every student earn an "A" by demonstrating a mastery of course concepts. I do understand that students have many other responsibilities, but it is your responsibility to your own learning and to assisting the learning of others in this class that I will be most concerned with. I will work with every student within reason to help her or him complete this course successfully. I grade each exam and assignment on a relative scale (A-F; 70-0 points typically). Your final grade is a weighted average of your separate grades in this course with some allowance made for technical problems imposed by the delivery method (WebTycho with email backup). It will come as no surprise that for a variety of reasons a number of students each term choose not to earn an "A".

Policies/Procedures:

CONSISTENT, QUALITY participation and effort are essential if both you and the class as a whole are the reach our goals. You must check your email at least once every 48 hours and respond to queries within one day (even if just to say when you will be able to give a more complete answer to the request). I will try to allow you time to explore the subject both individually and in small groups while giving you weekly feedback on completed assignments.

Some of the topics in this course are sensitive. We discuss, in an atmosphere of tolerance, understanding, and academic freedom, all the taboo subjects one might normally avoid. Please listen and comprehend with a kind and loving heart as well as a cool, dispassionate head.

Students will take turns recording small group discussions and acting as spokesperson for the group. This includes telling me who is contributing to the small group work so that I may assign marks equitably.

Finally, do not fall behind. Work ahead if possible. Do some work on this course every day or two. Set aside time to do this. If confused, in doubt, or in need of a clarification on any aspect of the course, contact me first.

This is an exciting course. Comments from my students reflect that it has literally changed their lives. So if you are interested, come ahead -- the future awaits.

(You may want to review the complete syllabus for this course on this web site.